The
Premier League is coming back but haven't we seen it all before?
Pre
season. An exciting time. Wrought with possibility. You haven't yet
seen your side play a competitive game so however unlikely it is,
there's always the chance that suddenly they're world beaters. All
those new signings might settle quickly. They could all hit form at
once. The manager might have found a system that works. And then the
first whistle blows...
I
used to love this time of year. I have vivid memories of Ajax's back
to back Amsterdam cup comeback wins over Barcelona in the early 00's.
I would consume the Emirates cup every summer. And Liverpool's
friendlies...I'd devour them, every second. Even if I couldn't see
them live and they involved two different sets of 11 players in each
half, I'd sit and watch. In fact, just 12 months ago I was analyzing
what 11 started not just for Liverpool but for each PL club in
preparation of another long hard year of fantasy football.
And
this summer? A better writer could probably come up with a more
scholarly sentence to sum it up, but I can't: This summer I just
couldn't give a fuck. I cannot quite put my apathy into words. In
fact it's not just apathy, it's borderline contempt. Every time I see
and ad on Sky or BT I genuinely feel as though I'm watching the
hysterical 2005 David Mitchell Skit where he lampooned the self
important bubble in which football and its media exists. “THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS OF HOURS OF FOOTBALL, EACH MORE
CLIMACTIC THAN THE LAST, EVERY KICK OF IT MATTERING MASSIVELY TO
SOMEONE SOMEWHERE” sounds more like something I'd expect to hear on
a Sky football ad than a comedy skit in 2015. I had a nagging feeling
last season, an inescapable disinterest in the premier league but I
chalked it up to a hangover from Liverpools nearly year but rather
than feeling refreshed after a summer without premier league
hyperbole, I feel substantially less interested now than I did in
May. Football is a huge passion of mine and Liverpool are a part of
who I am so this new found apathy is a curious thing and I thought it
wise to explore the reasons...
Of
course Liverpool are my rooting interest in English and European
football so it seems sensible to start at home. After going so close
to winning the league in 2014, 2015 brought another finish in the
Europa league places along with two losing semi final appearances in
cup competitions. Whilst last summer brought with it the naivety and
optimism that only comes with preseason, truthfully by the turn of
the year I'd come to accept that challenging for fourth and
contending for a trophy represented a decent return for a club of our
resources, but never was this hammered home then when I read an
article in the Guardian in February. I won't bore you with a huge
amount of detail – a lot of this stuff is covered in the excellent
Soccernomics book – but the key fact was just how substantial the
correlation between the size of a clubs wage bill and where that side
finished was. Between the years 2003 & 2013:
The
club with the highest wage bill each year finished, on average, 1st.
The
club with the 2nd highest wage bill each year finished, on
average, 2nd.
The
club with the 3rd highest wage bill each year finished, on
average...can you guess? That's right – 3rd.
This
went on and on as far as tenth. TENTH. Think about that. In one sense
this shouldn't be surprising but yet having lived and breathed
hundreds of games each one of those 10 seasons, boy did I feel silly.
More than at any point in the past, football in 2015 is dictated by
money. The teams who can offer the biggest paypackets can buy the
best players. They then lock up the top positions. It really is no
more complex than that. This is why even when clubs outside the top 4
spend big, they can't hold on to a place inside it as Liverpool and
Spurs found out in recent seasons. Perhaps this is best evidenced by
Liverpool losing their top 4 spot to Manchester City. The first
season that Manchester City finished inside the top 4 was also the
first season their wage bill eclipsed that of Liverpool. In the 5
years since, they have maintained either the highest or second
highest wage bill in the league, and have finished 3rd,
1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd.
Meanwhile Liverpool have only cracked the top 4 once. Funny how that
works.
Indeed
in the past ten years of premier league football, only twice has a
team outside the top 4 wage bills in the league qualified for the
following seasons champions league. Even the most basic of maths will
tell you that with 4 CL spots a year over 10 years, that means 2
spots out of 40. And those spots were taken by Liverpool and Spurs
the sides with the fifth and sixth highest wage bills. What this
means is that stiatistically speaking Liverpool and Spurs have a 5%
chance of breaking into that top four. Anyone beneath them...just
don't bother. Suddenly THE MOST EXCITING LEAGUE IN THE WORLD doesn't
sound quite so exciting, does it?
Of
course, that in a sense is almost footballs appeal. The desire to see
your team do the impossible. Spurs did it in 2010 and Liverpool in
2014. There is perhaps no victory sweeter than the one you did not
expect and tales of victorious underdogs live forever. I will be
wearing LFC red on August 9th at 4pm crossing my fingers
that the miracle is possible with the same fervor as years gone by,
but at least now I'll do so in the knowledge that the chances are
very slim.
Of
course this has always been the way to an extent but never has it
been more prevalent. The rich get the richer and the wealthy buy all
the gold. This season, Barcelona will win La Liga at a canter, Bayern
Munich won't break a sweat in claming the Bundesliga, PSG will stroll
Ligue 1, and Celtic...well ok, that one's just too easy. And the
premier league? My hunch is that Chelsea will win it with some ease
like I predicated and they delivered last year but you'll pardon my
indifference if I'm not quivering excitement that minnows Man City or
underdogs United might buy another tin pot for themselves. I saw that
one last year. And the year before that. And the year before that.
And the...well, you get my point.
Mind
you I would rather be quivering with excitement than experiencing the
emotions some of the LFC fanbase has been this summer. In 2015
everyone has a voice, for better or for worse. That's what the
internet has done. When it comes to football, it's definitely for
worse. The world as a whole feels the need to jump to conclusions
these days but nowhere is that more prevalent than in football.
Arsene Wenger recently floated the idea that a managers job nowadays
is to manage a crisis because you can have one, basically, every
three days. The hyperbole with which the game is presented and
commentated upon has fully transferred itself to the fanbase, and I
myself have fallen prey to this, spouting silly overly important
garbage. I have a core group of 6 – 8 friends with whom I discuss
Liverpool. These are intelligent people. Some even quite sensible.
Yet the absolute panic emanating from them after a bad result or two
would have you in tears of laughter. Words like CRISIS and CHAOS and
UNACCEPTABLE. A conclusion must be jumped to and it must be based off
the most recent thing. The thing before that? Doesn't count. Simon
Mignolet has played 94 games for Liverpool. He's played about 20 very
well, about 25 not so much, 25 relatively poorly and on 25 occasions
he's just handed the opposition goals. But because those 20 good
games were mostly recent, fans will forget the rest. Brendan Rodgers
is the opposite. He was a genius twelve months ago. Shorn of two
phenomenal strikers who scored more than 50 goals, he struggled this
past season. You'd think it makes sense to any reasonable,
intelligent adult. Meanwhile you've grown men hiring a plane to fly a
“RODGERS OUT” banner over Anfield. This is not unique to
Liverpool though. Robin Van Persie has been discarded on the back of
an injury hit season at Man United. Arsenal fans will tell you Arsene
knows all summer long, but when they get knocked out of the league
cup by, erm, Charlton in September after losing a league game three
days earlier, they'll tell you his time is up. Remember Chelsea fans
hounding Rafa Benitez as he won them a european trophy and secured
champions league football? Leicester just ditched Nigel Pearson after
his heroics keeping them up. Watford went one better, replacing the
manager who got them promoted before a ball has even been kicked.
Then there's Newcastle fans. I don't think I need to add anything to
that one.
Of
course, we're an easily led society so there must be a root to all
this evil, and I'm blaming Jamie Redknapp. I mean, technically I am
blaming Sky, but Sky is faceless where Jamie Redknapp is a handsome
but also ludicrously smug looking fuck so he shall be the subject of
my ire. Sky perpetuate the melodrama of football worse than anywhere
else. BIG BEN & matching yellow ties and dresses on deadline day.
A BREAKING NEWS ticker that actually breaks useless trivia (don't
worry though, it matches the yellow ties and dresses). Words like
CRUCIAL and VITAL. “I just feel it's vital QPR get summink today if
they're gonna stay up, I really do Jeff” Jamie will say in spite of
the fact that QPR are 11 points from safety with 12 to play for and
everyone knows they're gone anyway. He told me a game between West
Brom and Stoke was crucial last season too. I don't think either side
played a crucial side all season, embedded safely in mid table.
Thierry Henry knowing he has to say something but having nothing to
say so pretending to say something except not really saying anything
because it's just words coming out of his mouth. Phil Thompson
looking at a side in the bottom three and sternly telling Jeff
Stelling “If dee carry on in the form dat der in, dee could be in
trouble come the end of the season”. 5 minute puff piece interviews
with Garry Monk about Swansea 'pushing on' next season when we all
know that 8th place is the highest they're legally allowed
finish (for all intents and purposes). Paul Merson. I don't think I
need to add anything to that one either.
Of
course none of this is new even if it has certainly gotten worse and
worse to the point that it seems Mitchells parody is Sky's
advertising blueprint, but it's just so irritating when you hear the
same hyper dramatic bollocks from your friends. Lads, please. Calm
down.
Oh,
and I reserve the right to ignore anyone reminding me of this blog
when I lose the run of myself after the first game of the season.
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